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2024 House · California

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 525 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 45%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 46.58% · Republican 53.42%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 45 = 1.70
  2. Actual margin = 46.579 − 53.421 = -6.842
  3. Signed miss = 1.70 − (-6.842) = 8.542
  4. Absolute miss = |8.542| = 8.542

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89008, race ID 9990 (538 database).

population: lv