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2024 House · Connecticut

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 620 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.1% · Republican 45.3%

D+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 53.40% · Republican 46.58%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.1 − 45.3 = 3.80
  2. Actual margin = 53.396 − 46.580 = 6.816
  3. Signed miss = 3.80 − (6.816) = -3.016
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.016| = 3.016

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89007, race ID 9625 (538 database).

population: lv