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2024 Senate · Minnesota

Embold Research · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 1,734 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40.3%

D+11.7

The certified result

Democrat 56.20% · Republican 40.50%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40.3 = 11.70
  2. Actual margin = 56.201 − 40.501 = 15.700
  3. Signed miss = 11.70 − (15.700) = -4.000
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.000| = 4.000

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88990, race ID 9516 (538 database).

population: lv