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2024 President · Minnesota

Embold Research · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 1,734 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 45.1%

D+2.6

The certified result

Democrat 50.92% · Republican 46.68%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 45.1 = 2.60
  2. Actual margin = 50.923 − 46.683 = 4.240
  3. Signed miss = 2.60 − (4.240) = -1.639
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.639| = 1.639

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88990, race ID 8823 (538 database).

population: lv