2024 Senate · Texas
GBAO · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 46%
even
The certified result
Democrat 44.56% · Republican 53.05%
R+8.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 44.556 − 53.054 = -8.498
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-8.498) = 8.497
- Absolute miss = |8.497| = 8.497
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88975, race ID 9530 (538 database).
population: lv