2024 President · Wisconsin
Suffolk · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46.6% · Republican 48%
R+1.4
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%
R+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46.6 − 48 = -1.40
- Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
- Signed miss = -1.40 − (-0.859) = -0.541
- Absolute miss = |-0.541| = 0.541
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88974, race ID 8905 (538 database).
population: lv