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2024 Senate · Florida

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 1,227 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 48.8%

R+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 48.8 = -3.20
  2. Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
  3. Signed miss = -3.20 − (-12.778) = 9.578
  4. Absolute miss = |9.578| = 9.578

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88971, race ID 9509 (538 database).

population: lv