2024 President · Florida
St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 1,227 respondents · IVR/Text
The poll said
Democrat 44.6% · Republican 50.3%
R+5.7
The certified result
Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%
R+13.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44.6 − 50.3 = -5.70
- Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
- Signed miss = -5.70 − (-13.100) = 7.400
- Absolute miss = |7.400| = 7.400
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88971, race ID 8778 (538 database).
population: lv