2024 Senate · Michigan
Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 796 respondents · IVR/Text
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 48%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 48 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.341) = 2.659
- Absolute miss = |2.659| = 2.659
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88969, race ID 9515 (538 database).
population: rv