2024 President · South Carolina
East Carolina University · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 950 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 55.1%
R+13.1
The certified result
Democrat 40.36% · Republican 58.23%
R+17.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 55.1 = -13.10
- Actual margin = 40.361 − 58.229 = -17.868
- Signed miss = -13.10 − (-17.868) = 4.768
- Absolute miss = |4.768| = 4.768
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88966, race ID 8880 (538 database).
population: lv