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2024 President · Montana

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 39.6% · Republican 58.6%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.46% · Republican 58.39%

R+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.6 − 58.6 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.460 − 58.389 = -19.929
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-19.929) = 0.930
  4. Absolute miss = |0.930| = 0.930

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88963, race ID 8833 (538 database).

population: lv