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2024 President · New Jersey

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 51.8% · Republican 40.3%

D+11.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.97% · Republican 46.06%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.8 − 40.3 = 11.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.974 − 46.065 = 5.909
  3. Signed miss = 11.50 − (5.909) = 5.590
  4. Absolute miss = |5.590| = 5.590

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88960, race ID 8851 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv