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2024 Senate · Virginia

Washington Post/George Mason University · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 1,004 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 41%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.37% · Republican 45.44%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 41 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.366 − 45.443 = 8.923
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (8.923) = 4.077
  4. Absolute miss = |4.077| = 4.077

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88959, race ID 9504 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv