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2024 Senate · Missouri

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 620 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 40.5% · Republican 50.6%

R+10.1

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 55.57%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.5 − 50.6 = -10.10
  2. Actual margin = 41.840 − 55.572 = -13.732
  3. Signed miss = -10.10 − (-13.732) = 3.632
  4. Absolute miss = |3.632| = 3.632

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88955, race ID 9518 (538 database).

population: lv