2024 Governor · Utah
HarrisX · fieldwork ended 2024-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 813 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 21% · Republican 61%
R+40.0
The certified result
Democrat 28.46% · Republican 52.89%
R+24.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 21 − 61 = -40.00
- Actual margin = 28.462 − 52.890 = -24.428
- Signed miss = -40.00 − (-24.428) = -15.572
- Absolute miss = |-15.572| = 15.572
The poll overstated the Republican by 15.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88954, race ID 9544 (538 database).
population: rv