2024 Senate · Utah
HarrisX · fieldwork ended 2024-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 813 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 24% · Republican 65%
R+41.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.74% · Republican 62.50%
R+30.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 24 − 65 = -41.00
- Actual margin = 31.740 − 62.500 = -30.760
- Signed miss = -41.00 − (-30.760) = -10.239
- Absolute miss = |-10.239| = 10.239
The poll overstated the Republican by 10.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88954, race ID 9531 (538 database).
population: rv