2024 President · Utah
HarrisX · fieldwork ended 2024-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 813 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 31% · Republican 63%
R+32.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.79% · Republican 59.38%
R+21.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 31 − 63 = -32.00
- Actual margin = 37.794 − 59.377 = -21.583
- Signed miss = -32.00 − (-21.583) = -10.418
- Absolute miss = |-10.418| = 10.418
The poll overstated the Republican by 10.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88954, race ID 8892 (538 database).
population: rv