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2024 President · Oklahoma

WPAi · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 502 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 65%

R+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.90% · Republican 66.16%

R+34.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 65 = -36.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.899 − 66.162 = -34.263
  3. Signed miss = -36.00 − (-34.263) = -1.737
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.737| = 1.737

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88938, race ID 8866 (538 database).

population: lv