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2024 President · New Hampshire

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 915 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.9% · Republican 47.2%

D+3.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.65% · Republican 47.87%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.9 − 47.2 = 3.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.653 − 47.873 = 2.780
  3. Signed miss = 3.70 − (2.780) = 0.920
  4. Absolute miss = |0.920| = 0.920

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88933, race ID 8848 (538 database).

population: lv