2024 President · national
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 2,026 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46.2% · Republican 41.1%
D+5.1
The certified result
Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%
R+1.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46.2 − 41.1 = 5.10
- Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
- Signed miss = 5.10 − (-1.472) = 6.572
- Absolute miss = |6.572| = 6.572
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88923, race ID 8914 (538 database).
This poll asked 3 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: a
actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes