2024 House · Florida
U. North Florida · fieldwork ended 2024-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 337 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 48%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.72% · Republican 57.26%
R+14.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 48 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 42.722 − 57.259 = -14.537
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-14.537) = 7.536
- Absolute miss = |7.536| = 7.536
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88921, race ID 9630 (538 database).
population: lv