Skip to content

2024 House · South Dakota

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 825 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 27.8% · Republican 63.7%

R+35.9

The certified result

Democrat 27.96% · Republican 72.04%

R+44.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27.8 − 63.7 = -35.90
  2. Actual margin = 27.956 − 72.044 = -44.088
  3. Signed miss = -35.90 − (-44.088) = 8.189
  4. Absolute miss = |8.189| = 8.189

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88918, race ID 9892 (538 database).

population: lv