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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 47.7%

D+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 47.7 = 0.70
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = 0.70 − (0.849) = -0.149
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.149| = 0.149

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88913, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv