2024 Senate · Pennsylvania
Franklin and Marshall College · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 794 respondents · Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%
R+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (-0.217) = 7.217
- Absolute miss = |7.217| = 7.217
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88909, race ID 9527 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv