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2024 President · Pennsylvania

Franklin and Marshall College · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 794 respondents · Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.710) = 5.710
  4. Absolute miss = |5.710| = 5.710

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88909, race ID 8872 (538 database).

This poll asked 3 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv