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2024 President · Nebraska

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2024-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 815 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (IND)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 55%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.86% · Republican 59.32%

R+20.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.858 − 59.318 = -20.460
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-20.460) = 6.460
  4. Absolute miss = |6.460| = 6.460

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88880, race ID 8845 (538 database).

population: lv