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2024 Senate · Texas

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 815 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.8% · Republican 48.3%

R+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 44.56% · Republican 53.05%

R+8.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.8 − 48.3 = -1.50
  2. Actual margin = 44.556 − 53.054 = -8.498
  3. Signed miss = -1.50 − (-8.498) = 6.997
  4. Absolute miss = |6.997| = 6.997

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88877, race ID 9530 (538 database).

population: lv