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2024 President · Texas

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 815 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 53.1%

R+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 53.1 = -7.20
  2. Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
  3. Signed miss = -7.20 − (-13.683) = 6.483
  4. Absolute miss = |6.483| = 6.483

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88877, race ID 8889 (538 database).

population: lv