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2024 Senate · Florida

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 860 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 52.8%

R+5.6

The certified result

Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 52.8 = -5.60
  2. Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
  3. Signed miss = -5.60 − (-12.778) = 7.178
  4. Absolute miss = |7.178| = 7.178

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88876, race ID 9509 (538 database).

population: lv