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2024 President · Florida

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 860 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 53.6%

R+7.7

The certified result

Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%

R+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 53.6 = -7.70
  2. Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
  3. Signed miss = -7.70 − (-13.100) = 5.400
  4. Absolute miss = |5.400| = 5.400

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88876, race ID 8778 (538 database).

population: lv