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2024 House · New York

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 561 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.05% · Republican 48.84%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.054 − 48.839 = 2.215
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.215) = 1.785
  4. Absolute miss = |1.785| = 1.785

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88868, race ID 9816 (538 database).

population: lv