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2024 President · North Carolina

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 1,164 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-3.212) = 4.212
  4. Absolute miss = |4.212| = 4.212

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88866, race ID 8839 (538 database).

population: rv