2024 House · New York
Siena · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 526 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 47%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.76% · Republican 55.18%
R+10.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 44.755 − 55.178 = -10.423
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-10.423) = 7.423
- Absolute miss = |7.423| = 7.423
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88847, race ID 9798 (538 database).
population: lv