2024 Senate · New York
Siena · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 872 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 31%
D+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.81% · Republican 40.52%
D+18.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 31 = 26.00
- Actual margin = 58.815 − 40.524 = 18.291
- Signed miss = 26.00 − (18.291) = 7.709
- Absolute miss = |7.709| = 7.709
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88841, race ID 9524 (538 database).
population: lv