2024 House · California
WPAi · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 401 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 43%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.44% · Republican 48.56%
D+2.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 43 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 51.439 − 48.561 = 2.878
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (2.878) = -5.878
- Absolute miss = |-5.878| = 5.878
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88837, race ID 9994 (538 database).
population: lv