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2024 Governor · North Carolina

Redfield & Wilton Strategies · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 843 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 37%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 37 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (14.811) = -6.811
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.811| = 6.811

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88833, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: lv