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2024 President · Wisconsin

Redfield & Wilton Strategies · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 622 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.859) = 1.859
  4. Absolute miss = |1.859| = 1.859

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88832, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: lv