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2024 House · Alaska

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 49.6%

R+4.1

The certified result

Democrat 142.20% · Republican 148.48%

R+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 49.6 = -4.10
  2. Actual margin = 142.201 − 148.483 = -6.282
  3. Signed miss = -4.10 − (-6.282) = 2.182
  4. Absolute miss = |2.182| = 2.182

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88823, race ID 9988 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv