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2024 President · Wisconsin

Washington Post/George Mason University · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 695 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-0.859) = 4.859
  4. Absolute miss = |4.859| = 4.859

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88815, race ID 8905 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv