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2024 President · Arizona

Washington Post/George Mason University · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 580 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-5.527) = -0.473
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.473| = 0.473

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88809, race ID 8759 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv