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2024 President · Wisconsin

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 932 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 48.2%

D+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 48.2 = 0.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = 0.70 − (-0.859) = 1.559
  4. Absolute miss = |1.559| = 1.559

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88801, race ID 8905 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv