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2024 President · Pennsylvania

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 2,048 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46.5% · Republican 49.8%

R+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.5 − 49.8 = -3.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = -3.30 − (-1.710) = -1.590
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.590| = 1.590

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88800, race ID 8872 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv