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2024 President · North Carolina

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,674 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 48.8%

D+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 48.8 = 0.70
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = 0.70 − (-3.212) = 3.912
  4. Absolute miss = |3.912| = 3.912

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88799, race ID 8839 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv