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2024 Senate · Nevada

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,171 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 43%

D+4.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 43 = 4.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 4.10 − (1.643) = 2.457
  4. Absolute miss = |2.457| = 2.457

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88798, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv