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2024 President · Michigan

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,529 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46.8% · Republican 49.6%

R+2.8

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.8 − 49.6 = -2.80
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = -2.80 − (-1.414) = -1.386
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.386| = 1.386

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88797, race ID 8820 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv