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2024 President · national

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 4,180 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 50.7%

R+3.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 50.7 = -3.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = -3.10 − (-1.472) = -1.628
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.628| = 1.628

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88794, race ID 8914 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes