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2024 President · national

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 49.2%

D+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 49.2 = 0.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = 0.30 − (-1.472) = 1.772
  4. Absolute miss = |1.772| = 1.772

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88765, race ID 8914 (538 database).

population: lv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes