2024 Senate · Arizona
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 1,403 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 45%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%
D+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 45 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (2.406) = 6.594
- Absolute miss = |6.594| = 6.594
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88762, race ID 9505 (538 database).
population: lv