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2024 President · national

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,457 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.472) = 4.472
  4. Absolute miss = |4.472| = 4.472

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88710, race ID 8914 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes