2001 Governor · NJ
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2001-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 505 respondents · NA
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 35%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.43% · Republican 41.67%
D+14.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 35 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 56.433 − 41.675 = 14.758
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (14.758) = 2.242
- Absolute miss = |2.242| = 2.242
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 82145, race ID 1417 (538 database).